Kathmandu: In a significant geopolitical shift, Nepal has begun to pivot more decisively towards China, allowing the neighboring superpower to increase its influence across various sectors within the Himalayan nation. This move, motivated by a blend of economic necessity and political strategy, has raised alarms among regional experts and international observers.

Historically, Nepal has maintained a delicate balance in its foreign relations, often oscillating between its two giant neighbors, China and India. The country's reluctance to fully embrace China in the past was due to several factors, including economic dependencies, historical ties with India, and geopolitical considerations. However, recent developments suggest a notable shift towards Beijing, marked by significant agreements and collaborative projects.

One of the most striking aspects of this shift is Nepal's decision to invite China into its largely untapped oil and gas sector. In early May 2024, a team of approximately 20 Chinese engineers, alongside 45 Nepali technicians, commenced drilling operations in Dailekh, a region over 644 km from Kathmandu. This exploration follows a seismic survey, geological survey, magnetotelluric survey, and geochemical sampling survey, all conducted to assess feasibility.

The tools and equipment for this operation were transported from China to Nepal in April, as reported by The Rising Nepal. This collaboration stems from a 2019 agreement between Nepal's Department of Mines and Geology and China’s Geological Survey Company, highlighting the growing technical and financial cooperation between the two nations.

The deepening ties between Nepal and China coincide with a significant political realignment in Kathmandu. In March 2024, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as Prachanda, formed a government with the support of K.P. Sharma Oli, a known pro-China leader. This new coalition replaced the previous government led by the Nepali Congress, a party with a more balanced approach towards foreign relations.

China swiftly extended congratulations to the new government, underscoring its approval and support for the Communist alliance in Nepal. This political shift is reminiscent of the first Communist alliance formed in Nepal in 2017, facilitated by then Chinese Ambassador to Kathmandu, Yu Hong. Despite China’s denials of interference, these developments suggest a strategic maneuvering to bolster its influence in Nepal’s governance.

Following the formation of the new government, a Chinese military delegation visited Nepal, pledging to enhance defense cooperation. According to Nikkei Asia, this visit was part of Beijing's broader strategy to consolidate its hold on Nepal. The defense cooperation agreement is seen as an effort to integrate Nepal more closely into China’s strategic framework, potentially affecting regional security dynamics.

Economically, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been a significant aspect of its relationship with Nepal. In May 2017, Nepal and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the BRI, with hopes that it would attract Chinese investment and infrastructure development. However, seven years later, none of the nine proposed projects, including a trans-Himalayan railway and multiple infrastructure developments, have been realized. China's preference for funding these projects through commercial loans rather than grants has raised concerns about Nepal potentially facing debt distress similar to that experienced by countries like Sri Lanka and Zambia.

Among the projects, the China-funded Pokhara International Airport stands out. Inaugurated in January 2023, the $305 million project has faced significant operational and financial challenges. Despite being declared part of China’s BRI, the airport has struggled to attract regular international flights, drawing parallels to other controversial Chinese investments, such as Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port.

Public discontent has also grown over alleged Chinese encroachments on Nepalese territory. A 2022 report by Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture claimed that China had occupied 36 hectares of land across 10 locations along the northern border. This issue has fueled nationalistic sentiments in districts like Gorkha and Humla, where local communities are increasingly vocal about their concerns.

Diplomatic tensions flared last year when China issued a new standard map that failed to recognize Nepal's updated territorial claims. Prime Minister Prachanda raised this issue during his visit to China in September 2023, but Beijing has yet to address the discrepancy. This incident underscores the ongoing challenges in the Nepal-China relationship, even as economic and political ties deepen.

As Nepal continues to navigate its complex relationship with China, the implications for regional stability and its own sovereignty remain significant. The international community, particularly India and other South Asian countries, will be closely monitoring these developments. Nepal's pivot towards China not only alters the regional power dynamics but also raises critical questions about the future of its domestic policies, economic stability, and geopolitical strategy.

The coming years will be crucial in determining whether Nepal can leverage its relationship with China to achieve sustainable development without compromising its sovereignty and independence. The Himalayan nation’s ability to balance these competing interests will shape its role and influence in South Asia.